Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3452 at 19:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3452 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DCA 19:57	XNA 21:51	11%	4%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DCA 17:04 → ORD 18:28AA 1189	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 22:11 → XNA 00:01 +1AA 3941 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	99%	91%
American Details →	DCA 06:59 → DFW 09:25AA 1839	3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:31 → XNA 13:54AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 55m	99%	90%
American Details →	DCA 07:47 → ORD 09:05AA 2633	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 11:37 → XNA 13:26AA 4028 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	100%	90%
American Details →	DCA 07:59 → DFW 10:31AA 1978	3h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:19 → XNA 15:47AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	8h 48m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 10:16 → ATL 12:06DL 926	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → XNA 16:40DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	7h 24m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DCA 12:23 → DTW 14:00DL 2476	2h 02m Detroit	DTW 16:02 → XNA 17:18DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 55m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:41DL 410	58m Atlanta	ATL 08:39 → XNA 09:30DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	4h 30m	95%	88%
American Details →	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:20 → XNA 22:58AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	8h 45m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON