Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1733 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1733 DEN 08:08 → ABQ 09:33 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 484 DEN 19:20 → ABQ 20:44 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1733 United	DEN 08:08	ABQ 09:33	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4729 Southwest	DEN 09:06	ABQ 10:28	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5880 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:36	ABQ 23:08	12%	4%	0.7%	84%
OO 4728 SkyWest	DEN 15:55	ABQ 17:40	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 983 Southwest	DEN 15:37	ABQ 16:53	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1594 United	DEN 13:33	ABQ 14:59	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 476 United	DEN 11:20	ABQ 12:46	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 123 Southwest	DEN 20:38	ABQ 21:59	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 484 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ABQ 20:44	22%	5%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON