tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 501 at 11:18, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 501 SkyWest DEN 11:18 ACV 13:05 14% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 16:19 → ACV 17:38UA 419 7h 17m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 20:54 → ACV 22:13UA 4695 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 1h 04m Los Angeles LAX 10:36 → ACV 12:33UA 2628 5h 33m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 49m San Francisco SFO 14:14 → ACV 15:49UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest 7h 06m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 100% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 57m San Francisco SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest 5h 02m 75% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON