Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5233 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	AMA 16:43	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 5494 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	AMA 21:50	20%	5%	0.6%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Amarillo is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 07:17 → DFW 10:20AA 852	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:22 → AMA 14:47AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	6h 30m	97%	88%
American Details →	DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:35 → AMA 16:00AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	5h 56m	97%	88%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:17 → AMA 18:41AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	98%	87%
American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359	2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:46 → AMA 20:10AA 3990 · flown by Envoy	6h 31m	98%	87%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	58m Houston	IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 21m	96%	84%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 30m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	8h 00m	99%	82%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	1h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:59 → AMA 21:23AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	5h 12m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON