tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 12:19, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 280 United Flight history → DEN 19:08 ANC 22:57 16% 3% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 19m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → DEN 08:47 → MSP 11:45DL 2877 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → ANC 16:57DL 411 10h 10m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:48 → ORD 14:26AA 2559 2h 31m Chicago ORD 16:57 → ANC 21:04AA 375 12h 16m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:17 → ANC 19:28AA 399 12h 24m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731 2h 09m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 8h 47m 98% 80%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:19 → SEA 14:02AS 682 3h 50m Seattle SEA 17:52 → ANC 20:40AS 85 10h 21m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 3h 52m Seattle SEA 14:34 → ANC 17:21AS 1436 10h 41m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 16:36 → SEA 18:38AS 535 3h 25m Seattle SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490 10h 14m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 57m Seattle SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83 7h 47m 66% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON