Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 341 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 341 DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 479 DEN 17:51 → ATL 22:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 341 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:45	ATL 10:44	3%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 431 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:15	ATL 12:11	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:52	ATL 15:52	11%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:07	ATL 17:09	11%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 706 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:10	ATL 19:16	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:10	ATL 20:22	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 840 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:35	ATL 21:53	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 2806 United	DEN 10:08	ATL 15:15	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1671 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	ATL 18:30	17%	5%	0.6%	79%
UA 1305 United Flight history →	DEN 17:48	ATL 22:57	19%	5%	0.5%	72%
WN 4092 Southwest	DEN 11:09	ATL 16:09	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3600 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:36	ATL 17:55	20%	7%	0.7%	75%
WN 2145 Southwest	DEN 15:01	ATL 20:02	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 1450 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:18	ATL 00:29	24%	8%	0.7%	65%
WN 479 Southwest	DEN 17:51	ATL 22:52	24%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON