Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 731 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 731 DEN 08:04 → AUS 11:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1942 DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 731 Southwest	DEN 08:04	AUS 11:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 456 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	AUS 11:15	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 153 Southwest	DEN 09:32	AUS 12:39	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1440 Southwest	DEN 12:47	AUS 15:54	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1026 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	AUS 13:20	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 4732 Southwest	DEN 15:49	AUS 18:57	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1275 Southwest	DEN 11:01	AUS 14:07	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:30	AUS 12:45	14%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 2270 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	AUS 16:58	14%	4%	0.6%	83%
WN 1445 Southwest	DEN 19:59	AUS 23:07	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1899 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	AUS 18:48	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
F9 1816 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:12	AUS 19:39	15%	6%	0.7%	80%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	AUS 22:51	16%	4%	0.6%	70%
UA 1943 United Flight history →	DEN 20:27	AUS 23:44	16%	5%	0.6%	67%
UA 1942 United Flight history →	DEN 18:39	AUS 21:57	16%	5%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON