Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2643 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 2643 DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 4955 DEN 14:56 → BDL 20:35 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2643 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	BDL 15:37	9%	2%	0.5%	88%
UA 2254 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	BDL 23:44	18%	3%	0.5%	74%
WN 4955 Southwest	DEN 14:56	BDL 20:35	23%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON