Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1118 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1118 DEN 06:04 → BNA 09:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3317 DEN 18:06 → BNA 21:33 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1118 Southwest	DEN 06:04	BNA 09:33	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 793 Southwest	DEN 09:12	BNA 12:41	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 355 United Flight history →	DEN 09:44	BNA 13:27	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 1454 Southwest	DEN 14:42	BNA 18:14	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1287 United	DEN 20:28	BNA 00:08	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1453 Southwest	DEN 11:06	BNA 14:35	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1109 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	BNA 17:34	15%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
WN 3459 Southwest	DEN 16:39	BNA 20:06	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1402 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:33	BNA 14:18	17%	5%	0.8%	81%
WN 3317 Southwest	DEN 18:06	BNA 21:33	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON