Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 255 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 255 DEN 07:41 → BOI 09:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2014 DEN 19:28 → BOI 21:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 255 United	DEN 07:41	BOI 09:42	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 113 Southwest	DEN 09:02	BOI 10:55	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5923 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	BOI 22:37	10%	4%	0.5%	71%
WN 790 Southwest	DEN 13:04	BOI 14:58	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2255 United Flight history →	DEN 11:36	BOI 13:35	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 2602 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BOI 17:56	15%	4%	0.5%	67%
WN 1461 Southwest	DEN 21:27	BOI 23:21	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2014 United Flight history →	DEN 19:28	BOI 21:29	17%	4%	0.5%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON