Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 558 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 558 DEN 07:45 → BOS 13:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 697 DEN 11:38 → BOS 17:33 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 558 United Flight history →	DEN 07:45	BOS 13:49	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1232 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	BOS 15:44	22%	7%	0.6%	86%
UA 1356 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	BOS 23:44	29%	10%	0.6%	73%
UA 1912 United	DEN 15:47	BOS 21:58	31%	16%	0.7%	no record
UA 597 United Flight history →	DEN 14:06	BOS 20:10	31%	18%	0.7%	71%
WN 3652 Southwest	DEN 17:57	BOS 23:51	34%	9%	0.7%	no record
B6 394 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 14:45	BOS 20:43	36%	18%	1.0%	68%
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:33	BOS 17:35	37%	11%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
WN 697 Southwest	DEN 11:38	BOS 17:33	41%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	5h 51m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271	54m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	5h 47m	83%	62%
Southwest Details →	DEN 13:46 → MDW 17:06WN 2613	58m Chicago	MDW 18:04 → BOS 21:28WN 4215	5h 42m	82%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON