Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4179 at 09:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4179 DEN 09:09 → BUR 10:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2411 DEN 19:13 → BUR 20:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4179 Southwest	DEN 09:09	BUR 10:43	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1465 Southwest	DEN 13:12	BUR 14:47	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	BUR 12:48	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 9003 Southwest	DEN 19:56	BUR 21:28	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2411 United Flight history →	DEN 19:13	BUR 20:43	20%	6%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON