Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1105 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1105 DEN 06:38 → BWI 12:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 839 DEN 13:37 → BWI 19:04 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1105 Southwest	DEN 06:38	BWI 12:01	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1111 Southwest	DEN 08:09	BWI 13:37	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3072 Southwest	DEN 09:23	BWI 14:51	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1362 United Flight history →	DEN 09:46	BWI 15:17	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 4065 Southwest	DEN 12:24	BWI 17:51	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 363 United	DEN 14:11	BWI 19:49	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1469 Southwest	DEN 14:48	BWI 20:16	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 839 Southwest	DEN 13:37	BWI 19:04	14%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON