Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4754 DEN 08:00 → BZN 10:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1347 DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4754 SkyWest	DEN 08:00	BZN 10:06	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3873 Southwest	DEN 09:06	BZN 10:47	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1575 Southwest	DEN 13:06	BZN 14:47	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 513 United Flight history →	DEN 13:39	BZN 15:27	9%	4%	0.6%	85%
UA 741 United Flight history →	DEN 11:48	BZN 13:41	9%	4%	0.5%	82%
WN 4533 Southwest	DEN 20:52	BZN 22:32	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1219 Southwest	DEN 18:00	BZN 19:41	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1347 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	BZN 21:14	12%	5%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON