Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2742 at 10:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2742 DEN 10:01 → CID 12:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2324 DEN 17:59 → CID 21:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2742 United	DEN 10:01	CID 12:55	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 6009 SkyWest	DEN 20:44	CID 23:45	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 5677 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:55	CID 17:01	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 2324 United Flight history →	DEN 17:59	CID 21:00	22%	3%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON