Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 573 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 573 DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 616 DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 573 American Flight history →	DEN 06:41	CLT 12:04	7%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2231 United	DEN 09:55	CLT 15:20	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1283 American Flight history →	DEN 15:40	CLT 21:02	18%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 3299 American Flight history →	DEN 11:02	CLT 16:23	19%	3%	0.6%	93%worse than usual
UA 616 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	CLT 23:08	20%	5%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON