Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5246 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5246 DEN 07:45 → COS 08:41 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 5861 DEN 17:55 → COS 18:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5246 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	COS 08:41	8%	3%	0.5%	85%
WN 1481 Southwest	DEN 09:04	COS 09:47	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 5306 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:45	COS 10:46	10%	3%	0.5%	83%
UA 738 United	DEN 11:40	COS 12:24	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 4775 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:30	COS 14:27	17%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 5546 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	COS 16:32	17%	4%	0.6%	81%
UA 5308 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:55	COS 17:52	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
WN 781 Southwest	DEN 15:19	COS 16:02	18%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 5669 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	COS 20:26	20%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 5861 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	COS 18:54	22%	5%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON