Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 11 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 11 DEN 06:04 → DAL 08:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1487 DEN 18:03 → DAL 20:56 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 11 Southwest	DEN 06:04	DAL 08:57	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 8503 Southwest	DEN 06:12	DAL 09:07	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2539 Southwest	DEN 08:14	DAL 11:07	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2914 Southwest	DEN 12:45	DAL 15:38	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 493 Southwest	DEN 11:06	DAL 13:59	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1486 Southwest	DEN 19:52	DAL 22:56	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4071 Southwest	DEN 16:03	DAL 18:56	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1487 Southwest	DEN 18:03	DAL 20:56	20%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON