Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2635 at 18:06, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2635 United	DEN 18:06	DAY 22:54	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dayton is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → DAY 15:04DL 2763	7h 19m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 22:20 → DAY 23:51DL 3167	7h 41m	99%	89%
American Details →	DEN 11:02 → CLT 16:23AA 3299	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA	7h 35m	100%	86%
American Details →	DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 15:57 → DAY 17:29AA 5321 · flown by PSA	8h 48m	100%	84%
American Details →	DEN 07:17 → DFW 10:20AA 852	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → DAY 17:37AA 5517 · flown by PSA	8h 20m	97%	82%
American Details →	DEN 10:38 → DFW 13:40AA 1756	3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:16 → DAY 20:48AA 5609 · flown by PSA	8h 10m	98%	82%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101	3h 49m Dulles	IAD 17:15 → DAY 19:01UA 4274 · flown by CommuteAir	9h 01m	100%	78%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA	6h 33m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON