Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 686 DEN 07:30 → DCA 12:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 690 DEN 16:28 → DCA 21:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 686 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:30	DCA 12:51	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 789 United Flight history →	DEN 09:30	DCA 14:59	10%	3%	0.5%	91%
F9 690 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:28	DCA 21:59	19%	5%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON