Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 5361 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day OO 5361 DEN 08:06 → DSM 11:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 161 DEN 18:07 → DSM 20:48 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5361 SkyWest	DEN 08:06	DSM 11:13	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	DSM 12:40	7%	2%	0.5%	83%
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
WN 379 Southwest	DEN 11:19	DSM 14:01	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	DSM 20:30	16%	3%	0.5%	77%
UA 1213 United	DEN 20:58	DSM 23:43	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 161 Southwest	DEN 18:07	DSM 20:48	21%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON