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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 7h 09m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053 7h 28m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 7h 57m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 27m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359 3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:41 → ECP 21:59AA 3628 · flown by Envoy 8h 20m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 5h 52m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320 3h 48m Houston IAH 12:20 → ECP 14:20UA 4969 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 20m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:13 → DFW 09:15AA 3285 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ECP 14:36AA 2052 7h 23m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON