Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3384 at 10:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3384 DEN 10:58 → ELP 12:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 333 DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3384 Southwest	DEN 10:58	ELP 12:52	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2128 United	DEN 11:38	ELP 13:34	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:20	ELP 18:14	16%	5%	0.6%	80%
WN 1494 Southwest	DEN 20:47	ELP 22:41	17%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 333 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ELP 21:11	23%	5%	0.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON