Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4849 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 4849 DEN 09:04 → EUG 10:42 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1303 DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4849 Southwest	DEN 09:04	EUG 10:42	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	EUG 12:57	13%	5%	0.6%	73%
WN 3047 Southwest	DEN 20:41	EUG 22:21	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	EUG 21:21	19%	4%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON