Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 05:54, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:54 → SEA 07:44DL 1731	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 48m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	DEN 15:03 → SEA 16:42AS 535	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 19:54 → FAI 22:42AS 349	9h 39m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	DEN 19:07 → SEA 20:47AS 615	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 22:56 → FAI 01:45 +1AS 351	8h 38m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	DEN 12:18 → SEA 13:57AS 682	3h 59m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → FAI 20:46AS 284	10h 28m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 12:21 → FAI 15:16AS 230	8h 36m	90%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON