tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1214 DEN 09:54 → FLL 16:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1374 DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1214 United DEN 09:54 FLL 16:00 12% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1384 United Flight history → DEN 13:55 FLL 19:59 15% 6% 0.6% 67%
UA 1374 United Flight history → DEN 17:45 FLL 23:49 16% 5% 0.7% 77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720 49m Houston IAH 12:04 → FLL 15:47UA 1982 6h 05m 88% 76%
DeltaDetails → DEN 16:35 → ATL 21:53DL 840 52m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 6h 04m 84% 69%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 47m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 5h 48m 80% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON