Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 4856 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4856 DEN 08:58 → GEG 10:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 778 DEN 19:40 → GEG 21:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4856 Southwest	DEN 08:58	GEG 10:18	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
OO 4672 SkyWest	DEN 13:45	GEG 15:16	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 295 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	GEG 12:37	11%	3%	0.5%	83%
WN 3750 Southwest	DEN 21:17	GEG 22:38	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 778 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	GEG 21:05	18%	4%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON