tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 384 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 HNL 15:13 15% 4% 0.6% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 10h 28m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 11h 43m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:29 → PHX 07:27WN 2525 2h 22m Phoenix PHX 09:49 → HNL 13:32WN 3200 11h 03m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 12h 04m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 12h 18m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:58 → SLC 09:28DL 1581 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 10h 21m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 11h 59m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 10h 35m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON