Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 6020 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 6020 DEN 07:45 → ICT 10:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4745 DEN 18:00 → ICT 20:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6020 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ICT 10:16	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
UA 4755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:09	ICT 23:44	6%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	8%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	8%	4%	0.5%	85%
OO 4753 SkyWest	DEN 15:28	ICT 17:59	9%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4710 Southwest	DEN 11:26	ICT 13:56	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1788 United	DEN 18:26	ICT 20:53	16%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4745 Southwest	DEN 18:00	ICT 20:29	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON