Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2316 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2316 DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 624 DEN 20:51 → LAS 21:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	6%	2%	0.5%	94%
WN 784 Southwest	DEN 09:03	LAS 09:59	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:23	LAS 08:32	8%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 493 United Flight history →	DEN 13:32	LAS 14:41	9%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	DEN 09:44	LAS 10:48	10%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	11%	4%	0.5%	83%
F9 777 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	LAS 23:29	11%	5%	0.8%	74%
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	12%	5%	0.7%	72%
UA 2424 United	DEN 16:06	LAS 17:14	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1525 Southwest	DEN 15:46	LAS 16:43	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1527 Southwest	DEN 13:14	LAS 14:11	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:32	LAS 19:41	14%	6%	0.8%	77%
WN 1529 Southwest	DEN 21:13	LAS 22:06	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4847 Southwest	DEN 17:26	LAS 18:20	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 655 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	LAS 20:08	15%	5%	0.6%	70%
UA 1953 United	DEN 19:43	LAS 20:40	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 624 United Flight history →	DEN 20:51	LAS 21:46	17%	4%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON