Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1638 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1638 DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 3460 DEN 20:51 → LAX 22:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1638 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	LAX 09:32	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2002 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:31	LAX 09:00	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
F9 2341 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:38	LAX 14:19	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
WN 1532 Southwest	DEN 09:00	LAX 10:25	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 405 United Flight history →	DEN 10:02	LAX 11:34	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2148 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:29	LAX 13:56	10%	4%	0.7%	78%
UA 774 United Flight history →	DEN 13:26	LAX 14:57	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:20	LAX 08:57	11%	3%	0.6%	94%
OO 208 SkyWest	DEN 07:25	LAX 08:54	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1195 United Flight history →	DEN 15:43	LAX 17:15	13%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 1013 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	LAX 13:17	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 531 United Flight history →	DEN 21:20	LAX 22:55	13%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 6376 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:33	LAX 13:09	13%	4%	0.6%	93%
WN 3068 Southwest	DEN 14:01	LAX 15:28	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4339 Frontier	DEN 22:38	LAX 00:13	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 4948 SkyWest	DEN 18:33	LAX 20:08	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2176 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:57	LAX 21:30	17%	5%	0.7%	67%
UA 1753 United	DEN 17:28	LAX 18:52	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1460 United	DEN 19:38	LAX 21:00	20%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 727 Southwest	DEN 17:32	LAX 18:57	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3460 Southwest	DEN 20:51	LAX 22:11	21%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON