Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1288 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 1288 DEN 06:14 → LGA 11:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4150 DEN 14:39 → LGA 20:15 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1288 Southwest	DEN 06:14	LGA 11:53	9%	2%	1.7%	no record
DL 398 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:35	LGA 13:19	17%	6%	1.5%	87%
UA 1442 United Flight history →	DEN 08:03	LGA 13:57	19%	7%	1.0%	89%
UA 2446 United Flight history →	DEN 09:49	LGA 15:46	25%	10%	0.9%	83%
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	DEN 17:45	LGA 23:38	29%	9%	1.3%	70%
WN 4863 Southwest	DEN 08:46	LGA 14:25	29%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 2033 United Flight history →	DEN 17:35	LGA 23:30	31%	9%	0.8%	60%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LGA 16:47	33%	13%	1.5%	80%worse than usual
UA 2168 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LGA 21:54	33%	12%	0.7%	67%
UA 1579 United Flight history →	DEN 13:59	LGA 19:53	34%	15%	0.8%	71%
UA 598 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	LGA 17:24	36%	15%	0.9%	72%
WN 1539 Southwest	DEN 16:59	LGA 22:33	41%	11%	1.0%	no record
WN 203 Southwest	DEN 11:25	LGA 17:01	45%	12%	1.2%	no record
WN 4150 Southwest	DEN 14:39	LGA 20:15	45%	13%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON