Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2307 United Flight history →	DEN 12:00	LIH 15:37	15%	4%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	1h 54m San Francisco	SFO 08:47 → LIH 11:41UA 1111	10h 26m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	DEN 11:56 → SEA 13:41AS 682	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 16:55 → LIH 20:10AS 237	12h 14m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148	49m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 12m	89%	74%
American Details →	DEN 07:51 → PHX 08:55AA 1404	1h 54m Phoenix	PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697	10h 45m	94%	72%
American Details →	DEN 07:02 → LAX 08:33AA 6284 · flown by SkyWest	51m Los Angeles	LAX 09:24 → LIH 12:37AA 119	9h 35m	91%	70%
Alaska Details →	DEN 07:04 → SEA 08:51AS 317	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 36m	100%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON