Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3866 at 11:19 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3866 DEN 11:19 → LIT 14:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1470 DEN 17:39 → LIT 20:42 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3866 Southwest	DEN 11:19	LIT 14:20	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 5760 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	LIT 16:42	11%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 5369 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	LIT 12:52	12%	4%	0.5%	89%
UA 1470 United	DEN 17:39	LIT 20:42	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON