Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5333 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	MAF 12:59	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
OO 394 SkyWest	DEN 13:47	MAF 16:39	12%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DEN 12:39 → DFW 15:47AA 2359	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:40 → MAF 20:02AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	6h 23m	98%	87%
American Details →	DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:28 → MAF 16:51AA 3653 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	97%	85%
United Details →	DEN 05:00 → IAH 08:32UA 320	1h 03m Houston	IAH 09:35 → MAF 11:07UA 6186 · flown by Mesa	5h 07m	97%	85%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:35 → MAF 21:53AA 3541 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	95%	85%
United Details →	DEN 07:42 → IAH 11:15UA 1720	3h 20m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa	7h 33m	100%	83%
United Details →	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	1h 26m Houston	IAH 16:35 → MAF 18:15UA 6233 · flown by Mesa	5h 41m	95%	81%
United Details →	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	2h 54m Houston	IAH 22:04 → MAF 23:44UA 6276 · flown by Mesa	7h 09m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON