Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1713 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 1713 DEN 06:56 → MCI 09:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3376 DEN 16:51 → MCI 19:45 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1713 Southwest	DEN 06:56	MCI 09:34	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 778 Southwest	DEN 08:37	MCI 11:15	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1547 Southwest	DEN 10:56	MCI 13:35	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MCI 12:38	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
OO 4756 SkyWest	DEN 08:10	MCI 11:10	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
WN 2747 Southwest	DEN 14:02	MCI 16:39	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 523 Southwest	DEN 14:46	MCI 17:25	14%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4760 SkyWest	DEN 15:38	MCI 18:27	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 358 Southwest	DEN 18:22	MCI 20:59	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4658 Southwest	DEN 20:42	MCI 23:19	18%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	DEN 20:45	MCI 23:30	19%	4%	0.6%	67%
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:43	21%	5%	0.6%	56%
F9 3376 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:51	MCI 19:45	21%	5%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON