Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 2260 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2260 DEN 07:21 → MCO 12:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1558 DEN 13:22 → MCO 18:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2260 Southwest	DEN 07:21	MCO 12:49	7%	2%	0.9%	no record
F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:36	MCO 12:22	7%	2%	2.3%	86%
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	9%	3%	1.2%	89%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	10%	8%	1.2%	73%
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	14%	6%	1.3%	85%
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	15%	5%	1.0%	78%
WN 4634 Southwest	DEN 19:08	MCO 00:41	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:19	MCO 01:02	18%	9%	1.3%	68%
WN 3286 Southwest	DEN 10:57	MCO 16:30	18%	5%	2.3%	no record
WN 3659 Southwest	DEN 15:37	MCO 21:09	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 1558 Southwest	DEN 13:22	MCO 18:48	23%	6%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON