Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2789 DEN 10:56 → MEM 14:21 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3615 DEN 18:44 → MEM 22:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2789 United	DEN 10:56	MEM 14:21	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4662 Southwest	DEN 11:12	MEM 14:25	11%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2130 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	MEM 20:56	16%	4%	0.5%	75%
WN 3615 Southwest	DEN 18:44	MEM 22:01	18%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON