Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1836 DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest OO 560 DEN 17:35 → MKE 20:57 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:25	12%	2%	0.6%	87%
OO 4718 SkyWest	DEN 13:41	MKE 17:27	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4766 SkyWest	DEN 20:33	MKE 00:18	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4730 Southwest	DEN 11:01	MKE 14:14	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4804 Southwest	DEN 15:21	MKE 18:34	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4701 Southwest	DEN 18:10	MKE 21:23	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 560 SkyWest	DEN 17:35	MKE 20:57	20%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON