tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: UA 5438 at 11:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5438 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 11:15 MRY 13:10 11% 3% 0.5% 88%
UA 1822 United DEN 19:28 MRY 21:07 22% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 3h 48m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → MRY 20:06UA 5398 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 2h 51m Los Angeles LAX 16:08 → MRY 17:26UA 637 6h 41m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 2h 16m San Francisco SFO 17:25 → MRY 18:39UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:57 → MRY 11:39AA 2879 7h 39m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638 1h 08m Los Angeles LAX 10:40 → MRY 12:07UA 5613 · flown by SkyWest 5h 07m 96% 83%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:19 → SEA 14:02AS 682 1h 23m Seattle SEA 15:25 → MRY 17:47AS 2290 · flown by Horizon 6h 28m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DEN 20:06 → SAN 21:40AS 3029 · flown by SkyWest 46m San Diego SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest 4h 52m 73% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON