Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1129 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 1129 DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1576 DEN 15:06 → MSP 17:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1129 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MSP 09:00	4%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 773 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	MSP 10:38	6%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 2877 Delta Flight history →	DEN 08:47	MSP 11:45	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
UA 397 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	MSP 12:40	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
WN 1437 Southwest	DEN 09:59	MSP 12:52	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1150 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:35	MSP 13:42	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
F9 1292 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:12	MSP 00:21	11%	6%	0.7%	65%
UA 732 United Flight history →	DEN 13:42	MSP 16:46	12%	4%	0.5%	84%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:08	MSP 14:08	13%	3%	0.6%	75%
WN 142 Southwest	DEN 13:54	MSP 16:46	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2470 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	MSP 18:46	14%	6%	0.5%	76%
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	14%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 1220 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:32	MSP 21:34	14%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 667 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	MSP 23:59	15%	5%	0.6%	59%
WN 158 Southwest	DEN 11:19	MSP 14:11	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSP 20:51	17%	6%	0.5%	76%
WN 1577 Southwest	DEN 18:01	MSP 20:53	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1576 Southwest	DEN 15:06	MSP 17:58	18%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON