Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 250 DEN 13:27 → MSY 17:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1541 DEN 17:45 → MSY 21:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 250 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	MSY 17:15	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2273 United Flight history →	DEN 14:06	MSY 17:52	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
WN 4629 Southwest	DEN 11:04	MSY 14:46	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 443 Southwest	DEN 19:01	MSY 22:39	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1541 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSY 21:34	19%	6%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON