tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1736 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 OGG 15:05 11% 5% 0.5% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 9h 30m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 56m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 53m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → DEN 06:29 → PHX 07:27WN 2525 2h 13m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → OGG 12:59WN 1476 10h 30m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → DEN 07:58 → SLC 09:28DL 1581 2h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 10h 10m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → DEN 05:25 → DFW 08:33AA 2612 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:52 → OGG 13:55AA 123 12h 30m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:51 → PHX 08:55AA 1404 2h 08m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 10h 41m 95% 73%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:02 → PDX 13:46AS 684 58m Portland PDX 14:44 → OGG 17:31AS 353 9h 29m 88% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON