Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 6029 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 6029 DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 1184 DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6029 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	OKC 10:49	7%	3%	0.5%	97%
UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	9%	3%	0.5%	90%
WN 167 Southwest	DEN 11:02	OKC 13:40	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 4727 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:42	OKC 23:29	12%	4%	0.5%	76%
UA 1656 United	DEN 13:32	OKC 16:18	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 484 Southwest	DEN 15:53	OKC 18:30	18%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:54	OKC 18:31	18%	6%	0.7%	83%
WN 4731 Southwest	DEN 17:59	OKC 20:37	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	19%	6%	0.5%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON