Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: OO 510 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day OO 510 DEN 07:59 → OMA 10:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1874 DEN 16:40 → OMA 19:15 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 510 SkyWest	DEN 07:59	OMA 10:39	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4802 SkyWest	DEN 15:43	OMA 18:37	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4824 Southwest	DEN 11:12	OMA 13:42	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1633 United	DEN 10:09	OMA 12:50	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3824 Southwest	DEN 14:24	OMA 16:54	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	11%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 4962 Southwest	DEN 18:07	OMA 20:37	17%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 18:05	OMA 20:42	18%	5%	0.5%	66%
F9 1874 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:40	OMA 19:15	20%	6%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON