Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3078 Southwest	DEN 14:59	ORF 20:32	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 680 United Flight history →	DEN 17:58	ORF 23:33	17%	4%	0.5%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ORF 14:15DL 2925	6h 30m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 35m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → ORF 00:42 +1DL 2338	8h 32m	100%	89%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 12:09 → ORF 15:27UA 2807	7h 27m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:35 → JFK 12:27DL 336	2h 39m New York	JFK 15:06 → ORF 16:30DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	7h 55m	99%	88%
United Details →	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	3h 13m Dulles	IAD 22:35 → ORF 23:44UA 2677	7h 51m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:07 → ATL 17:09DL 995	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	7h 35m	100%	88%
American Details →	DEN 07:16 → ORD 11:00AA 2771	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 14:52 → ORF 18:16AA 4164 · flown by Envoy	9h 00m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON