Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1247 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1247 DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1615 DEN 20:57 → PDX 22:35 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:47	7%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 1601 Southwest	DEN 09:19	PDX 10:59	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2455 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PDX 15:13	10%	4%	0.5%	90%
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:27	PDX 13:09	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:44	12%	4%	0.5%	84%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:02	PDX 13:46	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 465 Alaska	DEN 08:09	PDX 09:48	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1770 United Flight history →	DEN 21:30	PDX 23:13	13%	4%	0.6%	69%
UA 498 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PDX 21:15	14%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 874 Southwest	DEN 13:22	PDX 15:01	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1161 Southwest	DEN 16:07	PDX 17:47	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 1615 Southwest	DEN 20:57	PDX 22:35	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON