Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1625 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1625 DEN 06:11 → PHX 07:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4765 DEN 18:45 → PHX 19:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1625 Southwest	DEN 06:11	PHX 07:12	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 399 Southwest	DEN 07:17	PHX 08:18	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 468 Southwest	DEN 08:56	PHX 09:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 962 Southwest	DEN 10:22	PHX 11:23	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 1375 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:50	PHX 08:03	6%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 1782 United	DEN 09:53	PHX 10:56	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1404 American Flight history →	DEN 07:13	PHX 08:08	9%	4%	0.6%	80%
WN 1629 Southwest	DEN 12:46	PHX 13:44	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1637 Southwest	DEN 21:11	PHX 22:11	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1481 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PHX 09:00	10%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 287 Southwest	DEN 14:05	PHX 15:07	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1634 Southwest	DEN 14:57	PHX 15:59	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1254 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PHX 16:35	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 631 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PHX 14:33	11%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 1686 United Flight history →	DEN 11:25	PHX 12:25	12%	3%	0.5%	87%
AA 2602 American Flight history →	DEN 12:19	PHX 13:22	13%	6%	0.6%	36%
WN 121 Southwest	DEN 16:57	PHX 17:58	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 2141 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:28	PHX 12:41	13%	4%	0.6%	87%
UA 1194 United	DEN 20:53	PHX 21:56	15%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 6351 SkyWest	DEN 17:31	PHX 18:41	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1507 United	DEN 18:23	PHX 19:26	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 127 Southwest	DEN 19:46	PHX 20:37	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2655 United	DEN 19:43	PHX 20:47	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 4765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:45	PHX 19:59	18%	6%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON