Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 1891 at 11:26, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1891 United	DEN 11:26	PNS 15:22	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 15m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 58m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	8h 20m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:07 → ATL 17:09DL 995	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021	7h 51m	100%	87%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → PNS 11:19AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	5h 19m	97%	86%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:59 → PNS 13:22UA 2492	6h 22m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	56m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 11m	93%	81%
United Details →	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	3h 16m Houston	IAH 20:20 → PNS 22:01UA 497	7h 31m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON