Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: OO 463 at 11:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day


OO 463 SkyWest	DEN 11:10	PSC 12:44	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1737 United	DEN 19:06	PSC 20:30	24%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pasco is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 07:05 → SLC 08:36DL 1581	3h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 12:24 → PSC 13:09DL 3892 · flown by SkyWest	7h 04m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	DEN 12:45 → SLC 14:20DL 1553	1h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:52 → PSC 16:38DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:07 → SLC 19:36DL 1623	3h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712	6h 47m	97%	87%
American Details →	DEN 12:19 → PHX 13:22AA 2602	3h 34m Phoenix	PHX 16:56 → PSC 19:37AA 5006 · flown by SkyWest	8h 18m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	2h 04m Seattle	SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26DL 1731	2h 09m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PSC 11:43DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	98%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON